Corbin Burnes takes the mound for Arizona against the Cubs today in a critical early-season clash at Wrigley Field. The Diamondbacks’ prized offseason signing remains winless through three starts (0-1, 5.2 ERA), with concerning metrics: a.5% hard-hit rate and a career-low strikeout pace. Chicago counters with Colin Rea, who has a.2 ERA in limited action this year, relying on an adjusted fastball-sweeper combo to limit damage.
Both teams rank among MLB’s top offenses, with the Cubs averaging a league-leading.9 runs per game and Arizona close behind at.47. The Over (1.5 runs) is trending as a key play, given their combined power and Burnes’ recent struggles. However, some analysts see value in Chicago’s moneyline (+115), citing Burnes’ inflated xERA (5.72) and the Cubs’ rested bullpen.
Corbin Carroll (.33 April average) and Chicago’s surging lineup add firepower, while Pete Crow-Armstrong (.25 BA) and Pavin Smith emerge as under-the-radar hitter props. With Arizona riding a five-game win streak and the Cubs seeking to rebound from a series loss, Burnes’ ability to contain Chicago’s bats could dictate the series opener’s trajectory.
