Datafolha projects Lula re‑election over Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026 runoff
Datafolha’s latest projection shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading former Rio de Janeiro senator Flávio Bolsonaro 51.17% to 48.83% in the second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, ending Bolsonaro’s chance of overtaking him.
Key points
- Datafolha counted 76.98% of ballots and projected Lula at 51.17% versus Bolsonaro at 48.83% in the runoff.
- In the first round, Bolsonaro led with 47.03% while Lula had 45.16% of valid votes.
- Lula’s social‑media push was directed by federal deputy André Janones, who ran the WhatsApp channel “Exército do Lula”.
- The projection differs from most second‑round polls that had shown Bolsonaro ahead.
Datafolha projection shows Lula ahead in Brazil’s 2026 presidential run‑off
The Instituto Datafolha projected the re‑election of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election.
According to the institute’s estimate, 76.98% of the ballots were counted, giving Lula 51.17% of the valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL‑RJ) 48.83%.
The margin indicated that Bolsonaro could no longer overtake Lula.
In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro had led with 47.03% of the valid votes while Lula had 45.16%.
The projection contrasted with most second‑round polls that had placed Bolsonaro numerically ahead.
Lula’s campaign effort to boost social‑media engagement was led by re‑elected federal deputy André Janones (Rede‑MG), who managed the WhatsApp channel “Exército do Lula”.
Janones also hosted a 24‑hour live broadcast after the Globo presidential debate on Friday, 23 October.
Your questions, answered
What percentages did Datafolha project for Lula and Bolsonaro in the runoff?
Lula was projected at 51.17% of valid votes and Bolsonaro at 48.83%.
Who managed Lula’s WhatsApp channel during the campaign?
Federal deputy André Janones managed the “Exército do Lula” WhatsApp channel.
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