Super El Niño set to peak in late December, shaping 2026/27 winter
A strengthening Pacific weather pattern is forecast to become the strongest in over 70 years, driving a southern storm track and colder conditions across the southern and central United States during the upcoming winter.
Key points
- The Super El Niño is forecast to slowly peak around late December.
- It is on track to become the strongest El Niño in over 70 years.
- Seasonal models predict a southern storm track for Winter 2026/2027.
- Colder conditions are expected to spread across the southern and central United States.
- The event is described as the biggest weather driver for the 2026/2027 season.
Super El Niño forecast for winter 2026/27
The Super El Niño in the Pacific is strengthening and is forecast to slowly peak around late December, putting it on track to become the strongest El Niño in over 70 years.
The event’s impact is now clearly visible in the atmosphere, with a reshaped circulation that is starting to drive the weather patterns over North America.
November forecasts already look similar to past strong El Niño events over North America, while Europe is starting the month with a pattern completely opposite to what was seen in past El Niño Novembers.
Seasonal models see the El Niño pattern carrying into Winter 2026/2027, producing a southern storm track and colder conditions spreading across the southern and central United States.
The Super El Niño is described as the biggest weather driver in 2026/2027, a warm temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that creates major changes in global pressure and wind patterns.
Your questions, answered
When will the Super El Niño peak?
The Super El Niño is forecast to slowly peak around late December.
How strong is the current El Niño expected to be?
It is on track to become the strongest El Niño in over 70 years.
What weather effects are expected in the US?
The pattern is expected to produce a southern storm track and colder conditions across the southern and central United States.
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